Nyc breaking news now9/25/2023 ![]() ![]() The average margin of error increases the further in time the forecast is from the actual event. In the very least, high surf, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion will be observed at our local beaches throughout the upcoming week. We still have time to watch Lee, and it is very likely the models will shift again. This means that even if the storm does not make a direct impact to our area, the wind field will be so large that we'll see at least some wind from it, even if the center of circulation is several hundred miles away. One other result of Lee's northward progression will be that he'll grow in size. This will work in our favor so that even if Lee comes to our region, we'll be dealing with a Category 1 storm, and not a Category 3 or higher. Both storms lingered in the Atlantic for several days, two weeks ago, and were able to draw up colder water from the deeper levels of the ocean, a process called upwelling. Some of that coolness is actually linked to Tropical Storm Idalia and Hurricane Franklin. Another factor, Lee's speed, will determine which direction the trough will be able to direct Lee to.Īs Lee travels northward, he'll encounter cooler waters, thus weakening him again. The latter scenario is not very typical but looks more probable than it did a few days ago. If the trough sets up further west, Lee may get drawn straight into the Northeast coastline, such as was the case with Superstorm Sandy. If the trough sets up further east, Lee will be steered further north into Canada. The presence of an upper-level trough that is forecast to be situated along the East Coast late in the week is the greatest factor. Multiple factors will have a hand in deciding Lee's final destination. Yes, those are outliers, but definitely cannot be discounted just yet. Some of the ensembles, which essentially are blends of many different models, also suggest that Lee will be making a landfall along the East Coast, with Long Island being one of the possible locations of landfall. However, the latest run of the GFS wants to bring Lee straight into New England, while the European has him making a visit to Nova Scotia. but heading to the Canadian Maritimes instead. The final solutions of the two most prominent models, the GFS and European, both have consistently shown Lee not making a landfall in the U.S. For the past week, the models have been back and forth with where Lee ultimately winds up. While the verdict is still out on that, some recent model projections are more concerning. ![]() The forecast models have speeded Lee's movement up so that by Friday he's nestled between Bermuda and North Carolina. ![]() Lee will most definitely gather fuel from the very warm waters that currently lie ahead. And that is in fact what the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for. These are indications that Lee is determined to become at least a Category 4 storm. The storm's eye has redeveloped, and is well defined, while his structure is looking more symmetrical. NEW YORK - September 10th marks the statistical peak date of hurricane season, and we are right on par with it, as Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot swirl simultaneously in the Atlantic.Īfter substantially weakening on Saturday, Lee is showing signs of intensifying once again. Do not duplicate in any form without permission.Hurricane Lee predicted to stay offshore as it passes by New York City 01:51 ![]()
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